The Most and Least Volatile Forex Currency Pairs in 2020 ...

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
  • Squeezes and other risks
  • Market positioning
  • Bet correlation
  • Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Squeezes and other risks

We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.

Events

Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.

Squeezes

Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.

Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.

Asymmetric losses

Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.

Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning

We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.

A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.

Raw format is kinda hard to work with

However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.

But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Bet correlation

Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.

Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
  • You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
  • You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
  • You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
  • You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return.
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?

Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.

Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.

That's a wrap on risk management

Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use the economic calendar
  • Reading the economic calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Interest rates
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The mysterious 'position trim' effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
***

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Aussie goes against the wind. Forecast as of 05.10.2020

Aussie goes against the wind. Forecast as of 05.10.2020

Monthly Australian dollar fundamental analysis

Hope for the best but do the rest. Although the major drivers of the AUDUSD 30% rally up from the March low have been the rapid recovery of China’s economy and the increase in the global risk appetite, the Australian dollar has domestic drivers as well. Australia efficiently manages the pandemic, and the government is willing to expand the fiscal stimulus. Australia’s Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is willing to provide money until the labor market returns to the full employment state. It is about the unemployment rate of 5%. The current unemployment rate is 6.8%, and it may grow to 8%-10%. It will hardly drop back to 5% before 2022.
Investors expect the Treasury to boost the fiscal stimulus. As a result, the net debt burden will increase to AU$712 billion or to 38% of the GDP. At the same time, the national debt ceiling will be increased above AU$1.1 trillion, and the income tax hike, planned for 2022, will be delayed. In the USA, the national debt exceeds 100% of GDP, in the euro-area, it is close to 100%, the Japanese government debt is more than 200%. Canberra can afford additional stimulus. Besides, the expansion of government bonds issue will support the capital inflow in Australia and strengthen the Aussie. Australia’s government bond rates are the highest among the countries issuing the G10 currencies.

Dynamics of Australia’s net debt, % of the GDP


Source: Bloomberg
Carry trades and high investment rating of Australia’s securities support and will support the AUDUSD bulls amid the high risk appetite and low volatility. That is the reason for the AUD correlation with the US stock indices. The turmoil in the S&P 500 market ahead of the US presidential election will suggest the AUDUSD consolidation.

Dynamics of AUDUSD and S&P 500


Source: Trading Economics
In addition to the size of the additional fiscal stimulus, investors are focused on the RBA's willingness to expand the volume of monetary support. In September, the RBA officials discussed such measures as the interest-rate cut down to 0.1%, purchasing bonds with longer maturities than currently under QE, negative borrowing costs, and even FX interventions. The latter two options are aggressive, and the regulator will hardly resort to such measures. But it is likely to cut the interest rate by 12 basis points. The derivatives market suggests it will happen already this year.

Monthly AUDUSD trading plan

Expectations of monetary expansion is a bearish factor for the AUD. However, I don’t think the RBA will do it in October. It is likely to leave the door open for the interest rate cut in the future and set the Aussie bulls back using verbal interventions. The RBA will hardly turn the uptrend down, so, its dovish stance will give a chance to buy the pair of the price fall. Following ht consolidation in the range of 0.695-0.735, the AUDUSD is likely to continue its rally up to 0.76 and 0.79.

For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/aussie-goes-against-the-wind-forecast-as-of-05102020/ ?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

"Satoshi Nakamoto" the mysterious creator of Bitcoin is no other than the CIA

Bitcoin has surged to all time highs, Who created Bitcoin, and why?
The creator of Bitcoin is officially a name, “Satoshi Nakamoto” – very few people believe that it was a single male from Japan. In the early days of Bitcoin development this name is associated with original key-creation and communications on message boards, and then the project was officially handed over to others at which point this Satoshi character never appeared again (Although from time to time someone will come forward saying they are the real Satoshi Nakamoto, and then have their posts deleted).
Bitcoin could very well be the ‘one world currency’ that conspiracy theorists have been talking about for some time. It’s a kill five birds with one stone solution – not only is Bitcoin an ideal one world currency, it allows law enforcement a perfect record of all transactions on the network. It states very clearly on bitcoin.org (the official site) in big letters “Bitcoin is not anonymous” :
Some effort is required to protect your privacy with Bitcoin. All Bitcoin transactions are stored publicly and permanently on the network, which means anyone can see the balance and transactions of any Bitcoin address. However, the identity of the user behind an address remains unknown until information is revealed during a purchase or in other circumstances. This is one reason why Bitcoin addresses should only be used once.
Another advantage of Bitcoin is the problem of Quantitative Easing – the Fed (and thus, nearly all central banks in the world) have painted themselves in a corner, metaphorically speaking. QE ‘solved’ the credit crisis, but QE itself does not have a solution. Currently all currencies are in a race to zero – competing with who can print more money faster. Central Bankers who are in systemic analysis, their economic advisors, know this. They know that the Fiat money system is doomed, all what you can read online is true (just sensationalized) – it’s a debt based system based on nothing. That system was created, originally in the early 1900’s and refined during Breton Woods followed by the Nixon shock (This is all explained well in Splitting Pennies). In the early 1900’s – there was no internet! It is a very archaic system that needs to be replaced, by something modern, electronic, based on encryption. Bitcoin! It’s a currency based on ‘bits’ – but most importantly, Bitcoin is not the ‘one world currency’ per se, but laying the framework for larger cryptocurrency projects. In the case of central banks, who control the global monetary system, that would manifest in ‘Settlement Coin’ :
Two resources available almost exclusively to central banks could soon be opened up to additional users as a result of a new digital currency project designed by a little-known startup and Swiss bank UBS. One of those resources is the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system used by central banks (it’s typically reserved for high-value transactions that need to be settled instantly), and the other is central bank-issued cash. Using the Utility Settlement Coin (USC) unveiled today, the five-member consortium that has sprung up around the project aims to help central banks open-up access to these tools to more customers. If successful, USC has the potential to create entirely new business models built on instant settling and easy cash transfers. In interview, Robert Sams, founder of London-based Clearmatics, said his firm initially worked with UBS to build the network, and that BNY Mellon, Deutsche Bank, ICAP and Santander are only just the first of many future members.
the NSA/CIA often works for big corporate clients, just as it has become a cliche that the Iraq war was about big oil, the lesser known hand in global politics is the banking sector. In other words, Bitcoin may have very well been ‘suggested’ or ‘sponsored’ by a banker, group of banks, or financial services firm. But the NSA (as we surmise) was the company that got the job done. And probably, if it was in fact ‘suggested’ or ‘sponsored’ by a private bank, they would have been waiting in the wings to develop their own Bitcoin related systems or as in the above “Settlement Coin.” So the NSA made Bitcoin – so what?
The FX markets currently represent the exchange between ‘major’ and ‘minor’ currencies. In the future, why not too they will include ‘cryptocurrencies’ – we’re already seeing the BTC/EUR pair popup on obscure brokers. When BTC/USD and BTC/EUR are available at major FX banks and brokers, we can say – from a global FX perspective, that Bitcoin has ‘arrived.’ Many of us remember the days when the synthetic “Euro” currency was a new artificial creation that was being adopted, although the Euro project is thousands of degrees larger than the Bitcoin project. But unlike the Euro, Bitcoin is being adopted at a near exponential rate by demand (Many merchants resisted the switch to Euros claiming it was eating into their profit margins and they were right!).
And to answer the question as to why Elite E Services is not actively involved in Bitcoin the answer is that previously, you can’t trade Bitcoin. Now we’re starting to see obscure brokers offering BTC/EUR but the liquidity is sparse and spreads are wacky – that will all change. When we can trade BTC/USD just like EUUSD you can bet that EES and a host of other algorithmic FX traders will be all over it! It will be an interesting trade for sure, especially with all the volatility, the cross ‘pairs’ – and new cryptocurrencies. For the record, for brokers- there’s not much difference adding a new symbol (currency pair) in MT4 they just need liquidity, which has been difficult to find.
So there’s really nothing revolutionary about Bitcoin, it’s just a logical use of technology in finance considering a plethora of problems faced by any central bank who creates currency. And there are some interesting caveats to Bitcoin as compared to major currencies; Bitcoin is a closed system (there are finite Bitcoin) – this alone could make such currencies ‘anti-inflationary’ and at the least, hold their value (the value of the USD continues to deteriorate slowly over time as new M3 introduced into the system.) But we need to pay
Here’s some interesting theories about who or whom is Satoshi:
A corporate conglomerate
Some researchers proposed that the name ‘Satoshi Nakamoto’ was derived from a combination of tech companies consisting of Samsung, Toshiba, Nakayama, and Motorola. The notion that the name was a pseudonym is clearly true and it is doubtful they reside in Japan given the numerous forum posts with a distinctly English dialect.
Craig Steven Wright
This Australian entrepreneur claims to be the Bitcoin creator and provided proof. But soon after, his offices were raided by the tax authorities on ‘an unrelated matter’
Soon after these stories were published, authorities in Australia raided the home of Mr Wright. The Australian Taxation Office said the raid was linked to a long-running investigation into tax payments rather than Bitcoin. Questioned about this raid, Mr Wright said he was cooperating fully with the ATO. “We have lawyers negotiating with them over how much I have to pay,” he said.
Other potential creators
Nick Szabo, and many others, have been suggested as potential Satoshi – but all have denied it:
The New Yorker published a piece pointing at two possible Satoshis, one of whom seemed particularly plausible: a cryptography graduate student from Trinity College, Dublin, who had gone on to work in currency-trading software for a bank and published a paper on peer-to-peer technology. The other was a Research Fellow at the Oxford Internet Institute, Vili Lehdonvirta. Both made denials. Fast Company highlighted an encryption patent application filed by three researchers – Charles Bry, Neal King and Vladimir Oks­man – and a circumstantial link involving textual analysis of it and the Satoshi paper which found the phrase “…computationally impractical to reverse” in both. Again, it was flatly denied.
THE WINNER: It was the NSA
The NSA has the capability, the motive, and the operational capacity – they have teams of cryptographers, the biggest fastest supercomputers in the world, and they see the need. Whether instructed by their friends at the Fed, in cooperation with their owners (i.e. Illuminati banking families), or as part of a DARPA project – is not clear and will never be known (unless a whistleblower comes forward). In fact, the NSA employs some of the best mathematicians and cryptographers in the world. Few know about their work because it’s a secret, and this isn’t the kind of job you leave to start your own cryptography company.
But the real smoking Gun, aside from the huge amount of circumstantial evidence and lack of a credible alternative, is the 1996 paper authored by NSA “HOW TO MAKE A MINT: THE CRYPTOGRAPHY OF ANONYMOUS ELECTRONIC CASH”
The NSA was one of the first organizations to describe a Bitcoin-like system. About twelve years before Satoshi Nakamotopublished his legendary white paper to the Metzdowd.com cryptography mailing list, a group of NSA information security researchers published a paper entitled How to Make a Mint: the Cryptography of Anonymous Electronic Cash in two prominent places, the first being an MIT mailing list and the second being much more prominent, The American Law Review
The paper outlines a system very much like Bitcoin in which secure financial transactions are possible through the use of a decentralized network the researchers refer informally to as a Bank. They list four things as indispensable in their proposed network: privacy, user identification (protection against impersonation), message integrity (protection against tampering/substitution of transaction information – that is, protection against double-spending), and nonrepudiation (protection against later denial of a transaction – a blockchain!).
It is evident that SHA-256, the algorithm Satoshi used to secure Bitcoin, was not available because it came about in 2001. However, SHA-1 would have been available to them, having been published in 1993.
Why would the NSA want to do this? One simple reason: Control.
As we explain in Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex – the primary means the US dominates the world is through economic policy, although backed by bombs. And the critical support of the US Dollar is primarily, the military. The connection between the military and the US Dollar system is intertwined inextricably. There are thousands of great examples only one of them being how Iraq switched to the Euro right before the Army’s invasion.
In October 2000 Iraq insisted on dumping the US dollar – ‘the currency of the enemy’ – for the more multilateral euro. The changeover was announced on almost exactly the same day that the euro reached its lowest ebb, buying just $0.82, and the G7 Finance Ministers were forced to bail out the currency. On Friday the euro had reached $1.08, up 30 per cent from that time.
Almost all of Iraq’s oil exports under the United Nations oil-for-food programme have been paid in euros since 2001. Around 26 billion euros (£17.4bn) has been paid for 3.3 billion barrels of oil into an escrow account in New York. The Iraqi account, held at BNP Paribas, has also been earning a higher rate of interest in euros than it would have in dollars.
The point here is there are a lot of different types of control. The NSA monitors and collects literally all electronic communications; internet, phone calls, everything. They listen in even to encrypted voice calls with high powered microphones, devices like cellphones equipped with recording devices (See original “Clipper” chip). It’s very difficult to communicate on planet Earth in private, without the NSA listening. So it is only logical that they would also want complete control of the financial system, including records of all electronic transactions, which Bitcoin provides.
Could there be an ‘additional’ security layer baked into the Blockchain that is undetectable, that allows the NSA to see more information about transactions, such as network location data? It wouldn’t be so far fetched, considering their past work, such as Xerox copy machines that kept a record of all copies made (this is going back to the 70’s, now it’s common). Of course security experts will point to the fact that this layer remains invisible, but if this does exist – of course it would be hidden.
More to the point about the success of Bitcoin – its design is very solid, robust, manageable – this is not the work of a student. Of course logically, the NSA employs individuals, and ultimately it is the work of mathematicians, programmers, and cryptographers – but if we deduce the most likely group capable, willing, and motivated to embark on such a project, the NSA is the most likely suspect. Universities, on the other hand, didn’t product white papers like this from 1996.
Another question is that if it was the NSA, why didn’t they go through more trouble concealing their identity? I mean, the internet is rife with theories that it was in fact the NSA/CIA and “Satoshi Nakamoto” means in Japanese “Central Intelligence” – well there are a few answers for this, but to be congruent with our argument, it fits their profile.
Where could this ‘hidden layer’ be? Many think it could be in the public SHA-256, developed by NSA (which ironically, was the encryption algorithm of choice for Bitcoin – they could have chosen hundreds of others, which arguably are more secure):
Claims that the NSA created Bitcoin have actually been flung around for years. People have questioned why it uses the SHA-256 hash function, which was designed by the NSA and published by the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST). The fact that the NSA is tied to SHA-256 leads some to assume it’s created a backdoor to the hash function that no one has ever identified, which allows it to spy on Bitcoin users.
“If you assume that the NSA did something to SHA-256, which no outside researcher has detected, what you get is the ability, with credible and detectable action, they would be able to forge transactions. The really scary thing is somebody finds a way to find collisions in SHA-256 really fast without brute-forcing it or using lots of hardware and then they take control of the network,” cryptography researcher Matthew D. Green of Johns Hopkins University said in a previous interview.
Then there’s the question of “Satoshi Nakamoto” – if it was in fact the NSA, why not just claim ownership of it? Why all the cloak and dagger? And most importantly, if Satoshi Nakamoto is a real person, and not a group that wants to remain secret – WHY NOT come forward and claim your nearly $3 Billion worth of Bitcoin (based on current prices).
Did the NSA create Satoshi Nakamoto?
The CIA Project, a group dedicated to unearthing all of the government’s secret projects and making them public, hasreleased a video claiming Bitcoin is actually the brainchild of the US National Security Agency.
The video entitled CIA Project Bitcoin: Is Bitcoin a CIA or NSA project? claims that there is a lot of compelling evidences that proves that the NSA is behind Bitcoin. One of the main pieces of evidence has to do with the name of the mysterious man, woman or group behind the creation of Bitcoin, “Satoshi Nakamoto”.
According to the CIA Project, Satoshi Nakamoto means “Central Intelligence” in Japanese. Doing a quick web search, you’ll find out that Satoshi is usually a name given for baby boys which means “clear thinking, quick witted, wise,” while Nakamoto is a Japanese surname which means ‘central origin’ or ‘(one who lives) in the middle’ as people with this surname are found mostly in the Ryukyu islands which is strongly associated with the Ry?ky? Kingdom, a highly centralized kingdom that originated from the Okinawa Islands. So combining Nakamoto and Satoshi can be loosely interpreted as “Central Intelligence”.
Is it so really hard to believe? This is from an organization that until the Snowden leaks, secretly recorded nearly all internet traffic on the network level by splicing fiber optic cables. They even have a deep-sea splicing mission that will cut undersea cables and install intercept devices. Making Bitcoin wouldn’t even be a big priority at NSA.
Certainly, anonymity is one of the biggest myths about Bitcoin. In fact, there has never been a more easily traceable method of payment. Every single transaction is recorded and retained permanently in the public “blockchain”. The idea that the NSA would create an anarchic, peer-to-peer crypto-currency in the hope that it would be adopted for nefarious industries and become easy to track would have been a lot more difficult to believe before the recent leaks by Edward Snowden and the revelation that billions of phone calls had been intercepted by the US security services. We are now in a world where we now know that the NSA was tracking the pornography habits of Islamic “radicalisers” in order to discredit them and making deals with some of the world’s largest internet firms to insert backdoors into their systems.
And we’re not the only ones who believe this, in Russia they ‘know’ this to be true without sifting through all the evidence.
Nonetheless, Svintsov’s remarks count as some of the more extreme to emanate from the discussion. Svintsov told Russian broadcast news agency REGNUM:“All these cryptocurrencies [were] created by US intelligence agencies just to finance terrorism and revolutions.”Svintsov reportedly went on to explain how cryptocurrencies have started to become a payment method for consumer spending, and cited reports that terrorist organisations are seeking to use the technology for illicit means.
Let’s elaborate on what is ‘control’ as far as the NSA is concerned. Bitcoin is like the prime mover. All future cryptocurrencies, no matter how snazzy or functional – will never have the same original keys as Bitcoin. It created a self-sustained, self-feeding bubble – and all that followed. It enabled law enforcement to collect a host of criminals on a network called “Silk Road” and who knows what other operations that happened behind the scenes. Because of pesky ‘domestic’ laws, the NSA doesn’t control the internet in foreign countries. But by providing a ‘cool’ currency as a tool, they can collect information from around the globe and like Facebook, users provide this information voluntarily. It’s the same strategy they use like putting the listening device in the chips at the manufacturing level, which saves them the trouble of wiretapping, electronic eavesdropping, and other risky methods that can fail or be blocked. It’s impossible to stop a cellphone from listening to you, for example (well not 100%, but you have to physically rewire the device). Bitcoin is the same strategy on a financial level – by using Bitcoin you’re giving up your private transactional information. By itself, it would not identify you per se (as the blockchain is ‘anonymous’ but the transactions are there in the public register, so combined with other information, which the NSA has a LOT OF – they can triangulate their information more precisely.
That’s one problem solved with Bitcoin – another being the economic problem of QE (although with a Bitcoin market cap of $44 Billion, that’s just another day at the Fed buying MBS) – and finally, it squashes the idea of sovereignty although in a very, very, very subtle way. You see, a country IS a currency. Until now, currency has always been tied to national sovereignty (although the Fed is private, USA only has one currency, the US Dollar, which is exclusively American). Bitcoin is a super-national currency, or really – the world’s first one world currency.
Of course, this is all great praise for the DOD which seems to have a 50 year plan – but after tens of trillions spent we’d hope that they’d be able to do something better than catching terrorists (which mostly are artificial terrorists)
submitted by PeopleWhoDied to conspiracy [link] [comments]

Bitcoin price forecast, using BCG matrix

Bitcoin price forecast, using BCG matrix
BTCUSD analysis: Bitcoin forecast

Experimental analysis of BTCUSD trends by means of Boston Consulting Group matrix

Telegram channel — trading signals btc, eth, xrp
Today, I’ll go on to analyze the BTCUSD pair, as all the other altcoins depend on it.
A couple of days ago, there was quite and important fundamental event that was hardly responded by the crypto market. It is about the G20 meeting that was held in Argentina.
One of the most important agenda items was digital economy. As you know, they were discussing cryptocurrencies and the future of the crypto market. Following up on this meeting there was drafted a declaration. At first sight, it doesn’t seem to present any sensational solutions. However, the leaders of G-20 member-countries have admitted that cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology has a huge potential and its development is important for global economy. On the other hand, they have again emphasized the officials’ concern about poor regulation of the cryptocurrency market. Here, a particular emphasis is put on the risks, associated with money laundering and the development of illegal markets, as well as terrorist financing.
What does it mean?
It is a good signal for alarmists, who have been already disappointed in cryptocurrencies and dumped their deposits. Nobody will ruin the crypto market. Cryptocurrencies, as a type of investment assets will always exist in one form or another. What’s the point in killing the goose that lays golden eggs?! The hype around the crypto market turned into investors those, who had never thought about investing in any assets. Economic participation of people has sharply increased. There appeared whole industrial sector that became almost national idea for particular countries. It is far easier to legalize cryptocurrency and impose taxation, rather than to fight with the products of digital economy. The Group of 20 were discussing the issue of developing a taxation system for international digital services. It means only one thing - one way or another, the whole cryptocurrency market will be split into two parts; the first one will be completely transparent not only for users but for public authorities as well. There will be institutional investors and banks, along with corporations. There, the cryptocurrency will be completely integrated into banking services and become publicly available and user-friendly. Everything will be legalized and regulated. The second part will become a part of shadow economy and will be under continuous pressure from regulators and governmental authorities. The users of such cryptocurrencies will be automatically recognized as financiers of terrorism and accomplices in money laundering. The users of such cryptocurrencies will face potential imprisonment and international prosecution.
Even if it sounds unreal now, but if the G-20 are seriously discussing the cryptocurrency matter, I’m sure that the country leaders will join their efforts to bring this scenario into reality. So, I won’t be surprised if, in a few years, there will be another bitcoin fork that will be recognized by the Group of 20, included into gold and forex reserve and will become a new payment means; and the old bitcoin will become illegal and will be traded secretly.
But now, it is still an assumption and won’t come true in the new future.
I’d like to perform technical analysis of the current bitcoin market sentiment to find out what is going to be in the near future.
https://preview.redd.it/7jfpz6euou221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed0798ef8938d6da6be3e33392b32d20054fa5b2
In my previous analysis a week ago, I offered a long-term forecast for the next 10 months, suggesting the major target at 2000 USD to be reached around October, 2019.
I still believe that the bottom at 2000 USD looks quite justified, in terms of both fundamental and technical analysis.
This scenario can be real in fact, if bitcoin will be moving in the downward channel with a corridor of about 3000 USD. Previously, BTC could be moving faster in a few days, but in the current crypto market situation, such a narrow range looks reasonable. However, Bitcoin has never moved as it was expected by the majority of traders.
I compared in detail the current market situation with the Bitcoin drop in 2014 and noticed some regularities that I emphasized in the last forecast for bitcoin future price.

https://preview.redd.it/ut5jhcpvou221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1f0582387490922b0b9aebd34a93a8cc7703948
If you look closer, you’ll see from the chart above that the bullish trend had been speeding up since August, 2014, and reached its peak in December.
I wouldn’t try to fit this into particular dates or months, but if I try to draw a direct parallel with the Bitcoin current fall, it should start falling faster.

https://preview.redd.it/rlixmzkwou221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6086ecddee8770675fdc62dafb726f544e15bad
To better explain my idea, I suggest you look at the chart above.
Many of you are likely to be familiar with the BCG matrix, is a corporate planning tool created by Boston Consulting Group. Long story short, the matrix describes the life-cycle of a product and its position in the market.
I won’t describe it in detail here. I just had an idea to analyze the price trend like a product. A trend is traded in the market like an idea, and each trader votes for it by means of their money, supporting or opposing the idea.
Based on this assumption, a trend, like a product, will pass through four stages:
  1. Entering the market - “Problem child”
  2. Developing stage - “Star”
  3. Developed stage - “Cash cow”
  4. Recession - “Poor dog”
The stage of problem child (also known as “question mark”) is the initial step. The product is just entering the market, but consumers don’t trust it, and so, it needs a large amount of investments. I marked this stage with the yellow circle in the chart above. There are two big dumps. The financial supporters of the drop were investing quite much in their bearish trend, but the buyers didn’t trust that idea and didn’t support it. Next, the product has been accepted by buyers, whose market share was quite high in the market, as well as the rate of sales, starting next. There, comes the stage of growth, the Star!
In the given example, it is the green box that highlights the zone of the steady bearish trend. It was accepted and admitted by the market, and everybody supports the idea of Bitcoin drop. Everybody likes it and thumbs it up. The next stage is the developed stage, or Cash cow. That is when investors begin to gain the yield from their product and the investment is paying off. It the blue circle in the chart above. There, it is clear that manipulators are starting to buy out and get the cheap biotin, making up their funds spent on dumps.
A sure sign of this stage is incredibly high trade volumes.
The last stage is recession, or Poor dog. Such a dog is weak and won’t live for long. The product at this stage is not appealing or demanded. Interpreting this idea, there is a clear red circle in the chart above. Market participants don’t believe in the bearish trend any longer and don’t support the idea by their money. The funders are not interested in promoting this idea as its development costs exceed the potential profit, or it may at all generate negative cash return.
Therefore, the Bitcoin bearish trend, like a product, is leaving the market, being replaced by a different idea.
https://preview.redd.it/ppki39lxou221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=1edcc6d841c3d623a78ac615323620868e52a605
Drawing the same parallel with the ongoing bearish trend, you see that the Problem child stage has been already finished. Due to the strong bearish trend, this stage was lasting for a particularly long time, despite the price drop from 20 000 USD down to 6000 USD. The candlesticks clearly display strong volatility and the buyers’ resistance.
Eventually, following the long fight, market gave up and the bearish entered the stage of Star. It is clear that, due to the longtime resisting, the bulls stepped back, having lost quite much; and each crypto market participant believed in the bearish idea. The stage was developing very fast, and so, it ended quite soon. And it is clear that the BTCUSD downtrend trend is entering the Cash cow stage now.
As I’ve already said, at this stage, manipulators take an advantage of the market inertia and start “milking” the cow, as the marketing specialists call it; traders would say, trick out of hamsters’ money.
https://preview.redd.it/abdwsiizou221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa8f3648a3f2a1f755f42f6e2d2deb7c640cab95
It is clear from the 15-minute BTCUSD price chart above that there are frequent buyouts; that is investors are gaining profits from the invested cash. Currently, while weak hands are losing their positions, the whales are buying out cheap bitcoins. It will go on until it becomes clear that the idea of the Bitcoin drop has been finished, and the bears don't have any more power to press the market down.
Most likely, at this stage, manipulators will repeat the same trick and start selling the bitcoins, they’ve already bought, to create stronger panic. People are extremely nervous, and so, manipulators won’t have to dump much.
https://preview.redd.it/itl4gyr0pu221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c6943a6a2bd554f1e9e7b44db7fb599c9abe263
If you gain look at the monthly BTCUSD price chart above, you see that the next wave is likely to start in February, 2019. Based on the depth of the plunge, the level at 2000 USD is such an irresistible barrier, which many will start from. I assume that manipulators anticipate this situation and will make their final buyout not going as low as this level. In the volume profile chart, it will look like a hump that I outlined by the red ark. After that, the bearish trend will start exhausting, amid trading flat and weak attempts to draw the price up to 4000 USD. The Bitcoin downtrend will enter the stage of Poor dog.

https://preview.redd.it/n8lplvt1pu221.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=955ff6e177191986710e731e2c5158de87b115ac
This period will be dangerous because of extremely low trade volumes, allowing the manipulators to perform various tricks and attempts to crash the market in order to buy more bitcoins at the lowest price level. There is likely to be another slide down before the bearish trend of 2018-2019 will finally end. The final drop is likely to be followed by a new idea, supporting the BTCUSD growth.
The whole cycle will start from the beginning. First, funders will heat the market up, selling the idea to hamsters. Next, supported by the market natural growth, they will launch the rocket up rather high, where they’ll start gaining cash. But that is another story; it is called Bitcoin uptrend of 2019-20??
Unfortunately, the manipulators haven’t yet finished developing their bearish trend, and we’ll have to wait.
That is my updated BTCUSD global scenario.
I wish you good luck and good profits!

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submitted by Nick_Kiros to u/Nick_Kiros [link] [comments]

Subreddit Stats: btc posts from 2017-10-03 to 2017-10-09 13:22 PDT

Period: 6.50 days
Submissions Comments
Total 837 20193
Rate (per day) 128.85 2692.43
Unique Redditors 489 2132
Combined Score 26601 69285

Top Submitters' Top Submissions

  1. 1086 points, 17 submissions: increaseblocks
    1. Another all time low achieved - The Blockstream CSO just reported Coinbase to the NYDFS (on Twitter) claiming they are violating the Bitlicense (199 points, 91 comments)
    2. Craig Wright is NOT the face of or "CEO" Bitcoin Cash (181 points, 116 comments)
    3. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Withdrawals now available on Gemini exchange (176 points, 39 comments)
    4. In just the month of September 2017 alone rBitcoin mods censored 5633 posts and comments! (115 points, 19 comments)
    5. Forget stealing data — these hackers broke into Amazon's cloud to mine bitcoin (91 points, 11 comments)
    6. Why Blockstream Is So Loudly Against Segwit2x (72 points, 52 comments)
    7. 10 reasons why Reddit admins should close down Bitcoin and not BTC (63 points, 62 comments)
    8. These are the real enemies of Bitcoin (43 points, 23 comments)
    9. Bitcoin Core developers along with Blockstream are destroying Bitcoin (36 points, 5 comments)
    10. Theory: Bitcoin Cash price is dropping as we get closer to SegWit2X hard fork. People are putting their money back into the SegWit1X chain for now so they can claim coins on both chains come November. (34 points, 43 comments)
  2. 970 points, 8 submissions: MemoryDealers
    1. Repost: "The notion of every #bitcoin user running their own node is as dumb as the notion of every email user running their own server.' (279 points, 233 comments)
    2. Just letting Bitcoin.org know that Bitcoin.com will list S2X as BTC (Just like 95% of the rest of the ecosystem will) (243 points, 146 comments)
    3. Censorship question (158 points, 164 comments)
    4. The newest Bitcoin CASH billboard is coming to Silicon Valley! ($1,000 in Bitcoin Cash giveaway contest) (90 points, 38 comments)
    5. Core supporter mentality: Why would anyone ever switch from Myspace to Facebook? Of course they won't, we are already #1 (73 points, 67 comments)
    6. Insights from "a professional capacity planner for one of the world’s busiest websites" on the block size issue. (59 points, 18 comments)
    7. South Korean Startups Are Preparing To Fight The Government's ICO Ban (48 points, 2 comments)
    8. Meanwhile in Japan: (20 points, 21 comments)
  3. 895 points, 7 submissions: poorbrokebastard
    1. Is segwit2x the REAL Banker takeover? (288 points, 400 comments)
    2. No supporter of Bitcoin Cash ever called it "Bcash." (207 points, 328 comments)
    3. The real upgrade happened on August 1st, 2017 (186 points, 206 comments)
    4. We are building a Big Blocker's Arsenal of Truth and we need your help! (143 points, 163 comments)
    5. Understanding the Implications of Restricting Capacity in a Peer to Peer Cash System. (53 points, 42 comments)
    6. Block space is a market-based, public good, NOT a centrally controlled, restricted commodity. (18 points, 48 comments)
    7. Crypt0 on youtube talks about the Segwit2x Banker Takeover (0 points, 3 comments)
  4. 866 points, 4 submissions: jessquit
    1. I think we need an EDA fix before the Nov hardfork (540 points, 352 comments)
    2. If you still think that SW2X is going to be a nice clean upgrade per the NYA you're smoking crack (136 points, 177 comments)
    3. Bitcoin Cash is the real Bitcoin, even if Segwit currently has greater market share due to its stronger shilling (104 points, 140 comments)
    4. "Firing Core" by running SW2X makes as much sense as firing the Linux kernel devs by running Ubuntu. (86 points, 69 comments)
  5. 785 points, 8 submissions: btcnewsupdates
    1. Overstock accepts Bitcoin Cash - BCH holders can now buy Home Goods, Bed & Bath Essentials, Jewellery & More! (586 points, 117 comments)
    2. Bitcoin Cash Gains More Infrastructure In the Midst of Segwit2x Drama - Bitcoin News (80 points, 35 comments)
    3. To commemorate its Bitcoin Cash addition, GMO has launched a cash-back campaign for bitcoin cash of up to 25,000 yen (40 points, 0 comments)
    4. India’s Koinex Exchange to Enable Bitcoin Cash Trading Soon (31 points, 13 comments)
    5. Unregulated Is Not Lawless - CFTC is investigating Coinbase’s Ethereum flash crash (23 points, 6 comments)
    6. SimpleFX, online Forex & Cryptocurrency broker recently introduced Bitcoin Cash as a deposit currency (22 points, 0 comments)
    7. Bitcoin Cash Popularity Allows ViaBTC Mining Pool to Surpass 1 Exahash (3 points, 0 comments)
    8. Trade Bitcoin Cash CFDs - The Rapidly Rising Crypto - plus500.co.uk‎ (0 points, 0 comments)
  6. 745 points, 18 submissions: cryptorebel
    1. Great analysis by singularity and jessquit on how anti-btc trolls shifted: "suddenly last year they all disappeared, and a new type of bitcoin user appeared who were fully in support of bitcoin but they just so happened to support every single thing Blockstream and its employees said and did." (102 points, 50 comments)
    2. Don't fall for EDA Dragons Den FUD. EDA is a powerful weapon that could kill off or cripple the segwit chain for good. Legacy coin has no EDA crash barrier as this article explains. This is why small blockers use FUD us to disarm the EDA (78 points, 118 comments)
    3. Roger Ver CEO of bitcoin.com says that from his point of view the segwit2x split just gives him more coins to sell for the Bitcoin Cash version which he thinks is the more useful Bitcoin @3min41s mark (71 points, 33 comments)
    4. Proof the new Dragons Den plan could be to try to split BCC with an EDA change. Mrhodl is confirmed Dragons Den, and Cobra Bitcoin is the leader of bitcoin.org which is making enemy lists for big block supporting businesses. (70 points, 47 comments)
    5. Right now segwit2x (BT2) is trading for $1143 and segwit1x (BT1) is $3070 on Bitfinex futures markets. Even with not the greatest terms, you would expect 2x to be much higher. I believe this bodes well for BCC. (61 points, 112 comments)
    6. The other day people were suggesting we do an EDA change before the November 2x fork. Here is why I think that is a terrible idea, and why we should only consider EDA change AFTER the 2x fork. (58 points, 40 comments)
    7. "Nick, Adam and others saw the flaw in the system being that they could not ensure one vote one person.. The flaw in that reasoning is assuming that one vote one person was ever a goal. Miners act economically not altruistically." (57 points, 14 comments)
    8. Original chain is now only 4.8% more profitable than Bitcoin Cash chain after the most recent EDA adjustment on BCC. Very normal blocktimes. Where is the EDA dragons den FUD now? (53 points, 33 comments)
    9. Great Explanation from Peter Rizun at 6min mark, on why Segregated Witness no longer fits the Definition of Bitcoin in the Whitepaper as a Chain of Signatures. (51 points, 19 comments)
    10. Right now segwit2x is $650 and segwit1x is $3906. Search for BT1 and BT2 on this page and you can see the futures prices. (51 points, 102 comments)
  7. 640 points, 3 submissions: BeijingBitcoins
    1. "Am I so out of touch?" (441 points, 163 comments)
    2. Bitcoin Cannot Be Only a Store of Value - excellent article by OpenBazaar dev Chris Pacia (189 points, 47 comments)
    3. Interesting research paper: Troops, Trolls and Troublemakers: A Global Inventory of Organized Social Media Manipulation (10 points, 2 comments)
  8. 622 points, 2 submissions: routefire
    1. "Everyone who supported UASF and now complains about S2X out of fear of confusion/lack of mandatory replay protection is a hypocrite. UASF did not have ANY replay protection, not even opt-in. UASF did not even have wipe-out protection!" (394 points, 133 comments)
    2. While /bitcoin was circle-jerking to the idea that no exchange would list the SW2x chain as BTC, Bitcoin Thailand's comment to the contrary was removed from the very same thread! (228 points, 70 comments)
  9. 510 points, 6 submissions: BitcoinIsTehFuture
    1. Bitfinex announcement about issuing BT1 & BT2 "Chain Split Tokens" to allow Futures trading. (BT1 = Segwit1x; BT2 = Segwit2x) (172 points, 173 comments)
    2. By proving that it can be done (getting rid of Core) this will set a HUUGE precedent and milestone that dev teams and even outright censorship cannot overtake Bitcoin. That will be an extremely bullish occasionfor all crypto. (149 points, 84 comments)
    3. Bitfinex is going to call Segwit2x coins "B2X" and let Core chain retain "BTC" ticker symbol. Bitfinex is therefore calling Segwit2x an altcoin and Core the "real chain". (138 points, 70 comments)
    4. The goal of all the forks appears to be to dilute investment in the true forks: Bitcoin Cash and Segwit2x. A sort of Scorched Earth approach by Blockstream. They are going to try to tear down Bitcoin as they get removed. (35 points, 11 comments)
    5. Blockstream be like (10 points, 11 comments)
    6. In light of all these upcoming forks, we need a site where you can put in a BTC address and it checks ALL the forks and says which chains still have a balance for that address. This way you can split your coins and send coins carefully. (6 points, 6 comments)
  10. 508 points, 3 submissions: xmrusher
    1. Can we take a moment to appreciate Jeff Garzik for how much bullshit he has to deal with while working to give BTC a long-needed upgrade that Core has been blocking for so long? (278 points, 193 comments)
    2. The very objective article "Bitcoin is not ruled by miners" on the "bitcoin wiki" was added by theymos on 8th of August this year. Nothing strange to see here, just an objective, encyclopedia-quality overview! (155 points, 58 comments)
    3. According to Crooked Greg, Jeff merging opt-in replay protection is "alarming", because it must mean Jeff wants to blacklist people's addresses too. Core devs keep lying and manipulating to stir more drama and further the split in the community. Disgusting! (75 points, 16 comments)
  11. 505 points, 4 submissions: WalterRothbard
    1. Sam Patterson on Twitter: Can anyone explain why miners and CEOs agreeing to a 2mb hard fork was no big deal with the HKA but is a "corporate takeover" with the NYA? (221 points, 85 comments)
    2. Apparently Bitcoin requires trust now - trusting Core. I didn't get that memo. I think I'll opt out. (169 points, 139 comments)
    3. Erik Voorhees on Twitter: Nothing about NYA was secret (106 points, 34 comments)
    4. How much BTC is in segwit addresses? (9 points, 25 comments)
  12. 480 points, 3 submissions: BitcoinXio
    1. Friendly reminder: if you haven't yet, watch this video which shows reddit is gamed and manipulated by professional shills paid by companies with huge million dollar budgets. It is up to our community to defend itself against these bad actors. (325 points, 99 comments)
    2. Blockchain CEO Peter Smith on Twitter: "We've dedicated our lives to building bitcoin products, introduced millions to bitcoin, evangelized, long before it was cool. Enemies?" (in response to Adam Back) (147 points, 47 comments)
    3. Liberty in North Korea: Reddit online community members join forces to assist in the placement of North Korea’s Hermit Kingdom refugees (8 points, 3 comments)
  13. 459 points, 4 submissions: singularity87
    1. The entire bitcoin economy is attacking bitcoin says bitcoin.org! You can't make this shit up. (435 points, 279 comments)
    2. Understanding Bitcoin - Incentives & The Power Dynamic (13 points, 1 comment)
    3. Understanding Bitcoin - What is 'Centralisation'? (9 points, 9 comments)
    4. Understanding Bitcoin - Validity is in the Eye of the Beholder (2 points, 25 comments)
  14. 434 points, 3 submissions: Gregory_Maxwell
    1. Wikipedia Admins: "[Gregory Maxwell of Blockstream Core] is a very dangerous individual" "has for some time been behaving very oddly and aggressively" (214 points, 79 comments)
    2. Gregory Maxwell: I didn't look to see how Bitcoin worked because I had already proven it (strong decentralized consensus) to be impossible. (122 points, 103 comments)
    3. LAST 1000 BLOCKS: Segwit2x-intent blocks: 922 (92.2%) (98 points, 99 comments)
  15. 419 points, 1 submission: Testwest78
    1. Making Gregory Maxwell a Bitcoin Core Committer Was a “Huge Mistake” Says Gavin Andresen (419 points, 231 comments)
  16. 412 points, 14 submissions: knight222
    1. Kudos to Theymos who wanted to clear things up... (311 points, 89 comments)
    2. COINFUCIUS on Twitter: We are working with the machine's manufacturer to incorporate Bitcoin Cash support. This is a priority for us. (76 points, 2 comments)
    3. Cash, credit ... or Bitcoin? St. John's gets 1st cybercurrency ATM - Newfoundland - Labrador (9 points, 1 comment)
    4. Banks like the potential of digital currencies but are cool on bitcoin, UBS says (3 points, 0 comments)
    5. The Feds Just Collected $48 Million from Seized Bitcoins (3 points, 1 comment)
    6. while Bitcoin users might get increasingly tyrannical about limiting the size of the chain so it's easy for lots of users and small devices. (3 points, 3 comments)
    7. ‘Fraud.’ ‘More than a fad.’ The words Wall Street CEOs are using to describe bitcoin (2 points, 0 comments)
    8. Bitcoin is creating stark divisions on Wall Street (1 point, 0 comments)
    9. Bitcoin: Bitcoin's rise happened in the shadows. Now banks want in (1 point, 0 comments)
    10. Japan’s Biggest Bank Plans to “Overcome” Bitcoin Volatility with 'MUFG Coin' (1 point, 0 comments)
  17. 406 points, 5 submissions: jonald_fyookball
    1. Normal, real twitter users don't add [UASF], [No2x] or any "causes" to their user handles. Obvious astroturfing is obvious. Do they really think they are fooling anyone? (175 points, 134 comments)
    2. Greg Maxwell (and others) may be engaging in the illegal harassment of Jeff Garzik. (92 points, 24 comments)
    3. Bitcoin Cash FAQ updated. Explains why Bitcoin Cash doesn't have SegWit and why it was not considered a capacity increase (87 points, 11 comments)
    4. Is it all a bait and switch campaign? (32 points, 14 comments)
    5. Possible EDA simulation algorithm sketch (20 points, 12 comments)
  18. 404 points, 3 submissions: Annapurna317
    1. Everyone should calm down. The upgrade to 2x has 95%+ miner support and will be as smooth as a hot knife through butter. Anyone that says otherwise is fear monguring or listening to bitcoin propaganda. (364 points, 292 comments)
    2. Notice: Redditor for 3-4 months accounts or accounts that do not have a history of Bitcoin posts are probably the same person or just a few people paid to manipulate discussion here. It's likely a paid astroturfing campaign. (38 points, 30 comments)
    3. The latest TED Radio Hour titled “Getting Organized” talks about the decentralized algorithms of ants and how centralization is not the most ideal state of an organization. (2 points, 0 comments)
  19. 385 points, 1 submission: squarepush3r
    1. Dangerous direction for /btc, possible jump the shark moment. Witch-hunting, paid troll and Dragon Den's accusation to justify censorship. (385 points, 201 comments)
  20. 381 points, 1 submission: hunk_quark
    1. Why is there so much debate on whether Bitcoin is store of value or digital currency? Satoshi's white paper was pretty clear it's a digital currency. (381 points, 182 comments)
  21. 369 points, 5 submissions: craftercrafter
    1. Gavin Andresen on Twitter: Early bitcoin devs luckily picked the right project at the right time. None are irreplaceable, bitcoin will succeed with or without us. (293 points, 57 comments)
    2. Antpool, BTC.TOP & Viabtc all said EDA is a temporary design for BCC. They are just waiting for the new algorithm. (34 points, 19 comments)
    3. SimpleFX, an Online Forex & Cryptocurrency Broker, Adds Bitcoin Cash Payments as well as Bitcoin Cash Trading Pairs! (27 points, 1 comment)
    4. BCC Miners, two EDAs have locked in. This will reduce mining difficulty to 64.00%. If you are aiming to achieve profit parity, you should start mining after the next EDA (in 2.5 hours), because then the difficulty will be at 51%, which gives profit parity on both chains and steady block rate. (9 points, 14 comments)
    5. Antpool, Viabtc, Bitcoin.com, BTC.com, we need to hear your voice. In the case of a scheduled hardfork for updating the EDA, will your pool follow? (6 points, 18 comments)
  22. 348 points, 6 submissions: specialenmity
    1. Fact: proof of work which is the foundation of bitcoin and not invented by Adam back was designed to counter attacks where one person falsely represents to be many(like spam). Subreddits and twitter dont form the foundation of bitcoin for a reason. (156 points, 27 comments)
    2. I'm a small blocker and I support the NYA (87 points, 46 comments)
    3. Devs find clever way to add replay protection that doesn't change transaction format which would break software compatibility and cause disruption. G. Max responds by saying that this blacklisting is a sign of things to come. (49 points, 57 comments)
    4. Five ways small blocks (AKA core1mb) hurt decentralization (36 points, 4 comments)
    5. Even if bitcoins only use to society was avoiding negative interest rates, bail-ins + bail-outs, that is incredibly useful to society. Of course a banker like Jamie Dimon would call something a fraud that removes a "bank tax" on society by allowing them to avoid these fraudulent charges. (18 points, 0 comments)
    6. There are different kinds of censorship. The core propagandists are unwittingly great advocates of economic censorship (2 points, 1 comment)
  23. 286 points, 2 submissions: coincrazyy
    1. Rick Falkvinge on Twitter - "Blockstream's modus operandi is not particularly hard to copy. It's just so cheap and shortsighted." -Gets 5000 ReTweets and 5000 likes in 30 mins. TO PROVE A POINT. ASTROTURFING DOES NOT MEAN CONSENSUS (164 points, 15 comments)
    2. Segwit was invented by "cypherpunks" THAT FAILED TO CREATE A VIABLE DIGITAL CURRENCY. Bitcoin was created by a cypherpunk that SUCCEEDED. (122 points, 118 comments)
  24. 257 points, 2 submissions: olivierjanss
    1. Why Bitfinex’s “Chain Split Tokens” are completely biased towards the small block side (again) (205 points, 165 comments)
    2. Reminder of what took place behind closed doors in 2016, revealing Blockstream & Core's quest for domination & lies. (52 points, 3 comments)
  25. 254 points, 9 submissions: SeppDepp2
    1. #SegWit2x is an upgrade to BTC and will use the BTC ticker. (103 points, 59 comments)
    2. Core rage quitting Swiss Bitcoin Association ? - Due to a CSW free speech ? - OMG - grow up little prejudges! (76 points, 141 comments)
    3. "Venezuela could soon decide to adopt the Bitcoin as its new currency" - Hope they'll use Satoshi's Bitcoin Cash - They cannot afford high fees like most No2X / NoCash puppets! (36 points, 6 comments)
    4. A short logical layman proof definition of Bitcoin: Look up, what Bitcoin really is: 1) Whitepaper 2) First code version Bitcoin is Bitcoin Cash and includes e.g. the witness. Segwit - Bitcoin is an alternative to this (ALT). (17 points, 3 comments)
    5. Core gets hyperallergic about a free speach of CSW in neutral Switzerland (6 points, 35 comments)
    6. Different Bitcoins: Value proposition, trust, reputation - confidence (6 points, 0 comments)
    7. Four Different November Scenarios (6 points, 24 comments)
    8. Swiss biggest FinTech launches BITCOIN Tracker (valid up to 2020) (2 points, 1 comment)
    9. Watch out for this kind of pattern! If it comes to such a segregation of good old members into good and enemy its gonna be dirty! (2 points, 0 comments)
  26. 230 points, 2 submissions: williaminlondon
    1. PSA: latest rbitcoin post "It's time to label (and remove from reddit.com) what is plainly obvious: btc is a monetized subreddit for bitcoin.com." (126 points, 57 comments)
    2. Did anyone notice how angry Blockstream / Core people are whenever good news are posted here? (104 points, 108 comments)
  27. 227 points, 1 submission: dskloet
    1. All the #no2x bullshit is the fault of the people who agreed to activeate SegWit before 2x. (227 points, 199 comments)
  28. 226 points, 5 submissions: opling
    1. Japan's Largest Bitcoin Exchange Bitflyer Launches Bitcoin Visa Prepaid Card (112 points, 1 comment)
    2. Large Japanese Energy Supplier Adds Bitcoin Payments With a Discount (44 points, 4 comments)
    3. Bitcoin ATMs On the Rise in Russia (40 points, 2 comments)
    4. Russia's Central Bank Instructs Clearinghouse Not to Settle Cryptocurrency Contracts (18 points, 1 comment)
    5. Government Head of IT Department Fired for Mining Bitcoin Using State-Owned Computers in Crimea (12 points, 2 comments)
  29. 222 points, 2 submissions: GrumpyAnarchist
    1. Xapo just sold off another 70,000 BCH today, that might explain the price. They're down to 176K in their main wallet now. (166 points, 132 comments)
    2. Roger, can you make Bitcoin Cash an option, with maybe a link to info, in the original wallet setup phase for the Bitcoin.com wallet? (56 points, 28 comments)
  30. 216 points, 7 submissions: uMCCCS
    1. TIL a BS employee, Chris Decker, and some other people released a study that says "4 MB blocks don't cause centralization" (128 points, 19 comments)
    2. Without ASICs, there would be large botnets that are more centralized (44 points, 43 comments)
    3. Bitcoin-ML Bucketed UTXO Commitment (a.k.a. Blockchain pruning!) (27 points, 6 comments)
    4. Bitcoin Cash is Satoshi's BitCoin, not altered Bitcoin (10 points, 10 comments)
    5. TIL BashCo has a website "2x Countdown" (5 points, 1 comment)
    6. How true is rBTC censorship? (2 points, 7 comments)
    7. If S1X lives and Core Never HardForks, BTC will die in year 2038 (0 points, 7 comments)

Top Commenters

  1. williaminlondon (3150 points, 739 comments)
  2. poorbrokebastard (2114 points, 518 comments)
  3. cryptorebel (1768 points, 257 comments)
  4. space58 (1313 points, 201 comments)
  5. Adrian-X (1109 points, 235 comments)
  6. knight222 (1037 points, 157 comments)
  7. bitcoincashuser (946 points, 188 comments)
  8. jessquit (901 points, 150 comments)
  9. ---Ed--- (758 points, 185 comments)
  10. LovelyDay (742 points, 125 comments)
  11. jonald_fyookball (720 points, 106 comments)
  12. Not_Pictured (701 points, 111 comments)
  13. awemany (675 points, 173 comments)
  14. BitcoinXio (611 points, 41 comments)
  15. Gregory_Maxwell (609 points, 90 comments)
  16. singularity87 (608 points, 44 comments)
  17. 2dsxc (587 points, 79 comments)
  18. BitcoinIsTehFuture (567 points, 79 comments)
  19. BTCrob (534 points, 214 comments)
  20. H0dl (531 points, 79 comments)
  21. dskloet (517 points, 94 comments)
  22. Ant-n (509 points, 132 comments)
  23. nullc (497 points, 66 comments)
  24. tippr (483 points, 284 comments)
  25. todu (476 points, 63 comments)
  26. GrumpyAnarchist (472 points, 127 comments)
  27. tophernator (462 points, 78 comments)
  28. livecatbounce (456 points, 61 comments)
  29. kenman345 (453 points, 49 comments)
  30. cryptonaut420 (403 points, 50 comments)

Top Submissions

  1. Overstock accepts Bitcoin Cash - BCH holders can now buy Home Goods, Bed & Bath Essentials, Jewellery & More! by btcnewsupdates (586 points, 117 comments)
  2. I think we need an EDA fix before the Nov hardfork by jessquit (540 points, 352 comments)
  3. "Am I so out of touch?" by BeijingBitcoins (441 points, 163 comments)
  4. The entire bitcoin economy is attacking bitcoin says bitcoin.org! You can't make this shit up. by singularity87 (435 points, 279 comments)
  5. Making Gregory Maxwell a Bitcoin Core Committer Was a “Huge Mistake” Says Gavin Andresen by Testwest78 (419 points, 231 comments)
  6. "Everyone who supported UASF and now complains about S2X out of fear of confusion/lack of mandatory replay protection is a hypocrite. UASF did not have ANY replay protection, not even opt-in. UASF did not even have wipe-out protection!" by routefire (394 points, 133 comments)
  7. Dangerous direction for /btc, possible jump the shark moment. Witch-hunting, paid troll and Dragon Den's accusation to justify censorship. by squarepush3r (385 points, 201 comments)
  8. Why is there so much debate on whether Bitcoin is store of value or digital currency? Satoshi's white paper was pretty clear it's a digital currency. by hunk_quark (381 points, 182 comments)
  9. Everyone should calm down. The upgrade to 2x has 95%+ miner support and will be as smooth as a hot knife through butter. Anyone that says otherwise is fear monguring or listening to bitcoin propaganda. by Annapurna317 (364 points, 292 comments)
  10. Friendly reminder: if you haven't yet, watch this video which shows reddit is gamed and manipulated by professional shills paid by companies with huge million dollar budgets. It is up to our community to defend itself against these bad actors. by BitcoinXio (325 points, 99 comments)

Top Comments

  1. 194 points: cryptorebel's comment in Dangerous direction for /btc, possible jump the shark moment. Witch-hunting, paid troll and Dragon Den's accusation to justify censorship.
  2. 167 points: EH74JP's comment in The entire bitcoin economy is attacking bitcoin says bitcoin.org! You can't make this shit up.
  3. 158 points: BobWalsch's comment in I think we need an EDA fix before the Nov hardfork
  4. 157 points: BitcoinXio's comment in Dangerous direction for /btc, possible jump the shark moment. Witch-hunting, paid troll and Dragon Den's accusation to justify censorship.
  5. 149 points: MemoryDealers's comment in All the #no2x bullshit is the fault of the people who agreed to activeate SegWit before 2x.
  6. 116 points: Testwest78's comment in Making Gregory Maxwell a Bitcoin Core Committer Was a “Huge Mistake” Says Gavin Andresen
  7. 115 points: 2dsxc's comment in I think we need an EDA fix before the Nov hardfork
  8. 106 points: Piper67's comment in jgarzik please do not add replay protection
  9. 106 points: singularity87's comment in The entire bitcoin economy is attacking bitcoin says bitcoin.org! You can't make this shit up.
  10. 99 points: zowki's comment in Bitcoin.com Pool stabilized the Bitcoin Cash blockchain (prevented excessive EDAs)
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Forex pairs to avoid trading + some of my best forex pairs to trade Which forex pairs move the most - pairs to trade for FAST ... Trading Stable vs Volatile and Exotic Currencies 3% Profits Daily from These High Volatile Stocks for ... AUD NZD - The Best Forex Pair To Trade - YouTube Most volatile currency FX pair for max forex trading profit Most volatile currency FX forex pairs June 22

The Most Volatile Currency Pairs Table (data from 01-06-20) The table shows that today the most volatile Forex pairs are exotic ones. Namely, USD/SEK, USD/TRY, and USD/BRL. All of them move on average for more than 400 points per day. The volatility of the major currency pairs is much lower. Only GBP/USD moves for more than 100 points per day. Forex Trades 24 Hours a Day, Five Days a Week . Traders have the luxury of highly leveraged trading with lower margin requirements than in equity markets.But before you jump in head first to the ... As most forex traders already know, scalping strategies involve short-term transactions to bring profit. It can be defined as being a highly specialized trading method, which requires strong technical and fundamental analysis knowledge and favorable technical setup in order for the scalper to profit. As the technique is oriented towards a specific kind of movement in the market, it is ... Highly volatile currencies can end up being a good thing for Forex traders. This list will help you identify the 10 most volatile Forex pairs, the reason behind their volatility, forex pairs with the highest daily range, and how you can take advantage of them by looking at the factors that make them unstable. The USD/ZAR, USD/KRW, USD/BRL and other emerging market currencies pairs tend to be highly volatile due to their low liquidity and because of the risk that is inherent in emerging market economies. By doing so, we can rank the currency pairs from the most to the least liquid. However, we cannot calculate these volumes since the Forex market has no single-center, and God knows how many open orders currently are there. On the other hand, we have some data on the activity of various currency pairs, namely, every pair’s share of the total ... Before a trader enters their first trade, it’s important to learn about currency pairs and what they signify. In the forex market, currencies always trade in pairs. The forex market uses symbols to designate specific currency pairs. The euro is symbolized by EUR, the U.S. dollar is USD, so the euro/U.S. dollar pair is shown as EUR/USD.

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Forex pairs to avoid trading + some of my best forex pairs to trade

Forex pairs to avoid trading IF you dont want to lose your money. Some of my best forex pairs to trade. See forex pairs that move fast video: https://youtu.b... [GET] 3 % profits daily from these high volatile stocks for intraday trading If you are connected with the stock market, you've come across the term "volatil... A trend worth noting for max profit potential with forex trading quantlabs.net/blog/2016/08/most-volatile-currency-fx-pair-for-max-forex-trading-profit/ The AUD NZD is the best Forex pair to trade, and I explain why. Those who want to trade the No Nonsense Forex way need to pay close attention to this one. No... This will explain the most volatile (riskiest with most profit potential) out there with different time period snapshots.http://quantlabs.net/blog/2017/06/mo... Many traders trade the major pairs like USD/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/USD but sometimes we want to spread our wings across some of the more volatile pairs. So what's the difference between the stable and ... 💰💰Which #forex pairs move the most - pairs to trade for FAST money and FAST pips. The most volatile Forex pairs can move on average for more than 400 points ...

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